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The maple bubble : a history of migration among canadian provinces

José Eduardo
Gómez-González
Sebastián
Sanín-Restrepo
Monday, 1 May 2017

This study reports evidence of the existence of house price bubbles in several Canadian provinces around the recent global financial crisis. Using a wealth of monthly data for about a thirty-year period we find evidence supporting the hypothesis that the bubble in Quebec transmitted to four other Canadian provinces. Using a recently developed migration test, we show evidence of time-varying transmission intensities. In all cases an inverted U-shape is encountered, suggesting that initially migrations gain strength and then decrease after a maximum point is reached. Interestingly, intensities increase significantly around the maximum point of the bubble in Quebec. Our results have important implications for the design of housing market policies.

Autores

José Eduardo Gómez-González

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