Modelling autoregressive processes with a shifting mean

Borradores de Economia
Número: 
420
Publicado: 
Clasificación JEL: 
C22, C52
Palabras clave: 
Deterministic shift, nonlinear autoregression, nonstationarity, nonlinear trend

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This paper contains a nonlinear, nonstationary autoregressive model whose intercept changes deterministically over time. The intercept is a flexible function of time, and its construction bears some resemblance to neural network models. A modeling techniq