Reexamining a classical question: Does development push migration?

ANNALS OF REGIONAL SCIENCE
Publicado: 
Authors:
Gu Hengyue
Clasificación JEL: 
C23, O15, R23

Lo más reciente

María Teresa Ramírez-Giraldo, Karina Acosta, Olga Lucia Acosta Navarro, Lucia Arango-Lozano, Fernando Arias-Rodríguez, Oscar Iván Ávila-Montealegre, Oscar Reinaldo Becerra Camargo, Leonardo Bonilla-Mejía, Grey Yuliet Ceballos-Garcia, Luz Adriana Flórez, Juan Miguel Gallego-Acevedo, Luis Armando Galvis-Aponte, Luis M. García-Pulgarín, Andrés Felipe García-Suaza, Anderson Grajales, Daniela Gualtero-Briceño, Didier Hermida-Giraldo, Ana María Iregui-Bohórquez, Juliana Jaramillo-Echeverri, Karen Laguna-Ballesteros, Francisco Javier Lasso-Valderrama, Daniel Márquez, Carlos Alberto Medina-Durango, Ligia Alba Melo-Becerra, María Fernanda Meneses-González, Juan José Ospina-Tejeiro, Andrea Sofía Otero-Cortés, Daniel Parra-Amado, Juana Piñeros-Ruiz, Christian Manuel Posso-Suárez, Natalia Ramírez-Bustamante, Mario Andrés Ramos-Veloza, Jorge Leonardo Rodríguez-Arenas, Alejandro Sarasti-Sierra, Bibiana Taboada-Arango, Ana María Tribín-Uribe, Juanita Villaveces
Wilmer Martinez-Rivera, Manuel Darío Hernández-Bejarano

The migration curve hypothesis, a well-established concept in migration studies, posits that emigration rates initially rise with economic development but subsequently decline upon reaching a certain level of development. This hypothesis has been widely examined in international contexts, with many studies affirming its validity. This study aims to investigate whether the migration curve hypothesis is valid in internal migration contexts. It also aims to elucidate the effect of development on migration. Using data obtained from household surveys collected in Colombia between 2012 and 2019 and auxiliary variables from multiple sources, we extend the gravity models to control for spatial and nonspatial endogeneity to test the migration curve. The evidence from Colombia reveals a relationship between development and migration contrary to the international evidence. Some evidence of an inverted U-shaped curve is found when the sample when focusing on migration from rural areas. These results suggest that questioning the empirical studies used to test the migration curve hypothesis is still relevant. The results also suggest that disentangling the bidirectional effect between the relevant variables is crucial for deriving conclusions for policy analysis from this curve. It is also pivotal to test whether such a relationship changes over time and between areas. The findings also indicate a significant shift in migration patterns within Colombia, revealing a decreasing prominence of Bogotá as a primary migration destination over time.