Bayesian model averaging: an application to forecast inflation in Colombia

Número: 
604
Publicado: 
Clasificación JEL: 
C11, C15, C52, C53
Palabras clave: 
Bayesian model averaging, forecast combination, Inflation, Information theoretical model averaging.

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Luis E. Arango, Leonardo Bonilla-Mejía, Luz Adriana Flórez, Luis E. Arango
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An application of Bayesian Model Averaging, BMA, is implemented to construct combined forecasts for the colombian inflation for the short and medium run. A model selection algorithm is applied over a set of linear models with a large dataset of potencial