Measuring the Unmeasurable: Unraveling the complexities of real-time output gap estimation

Borradores de Economia
Number: 
1284
DOI: 
https://doi.org/10.32468/be.1284
Published: 
Authors:
Karen L. Pulido-Mahechaa,
Sergio Restrepo Ángela,
Franky Juliano Galeano-Ramíreza
Classification JEL: 
E2, E3, E6
Keywords: 
output gaps, real-time estimation, Business cycles
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Abstract

This paper evaluates seven output gap models for real-time estimates, based on three criteria: stability of estimations on new observations, data revisions and/or methodological changes; inflation forecasting accuracy; and potential output response to structural economic shocks. Results confirm no single model outperforms across all criteria. Structural VARs exhibit superior inflation forecasts but show high instability, while semi-structural models produce more theoretically consistent potential output responses. To overcome this trade-off, we propose a novel clustering approach to pool models based on their real-time performance, yielding improved estimates. Our findings highlight the value of this method for enhancing real-time output gap measurement and informing monetary policy decisions.