Borradores de Economía - An Analysis of the Probability Faced by Colombian Firms in Importing Products from 1995 to 2017

This document describes and calculates the probability of importing products in Colombia based on various characteristics of the importing market during the period 1995–2017. The estimates are derived from a nonlinear econometric zero-inflated Poisson model that relates the frequency of importing to its determinants. Subsequently, it analyzes how the probabilities of importing changed in response to key variables in the importing market. The main findings reveal that a small group of importers had the highest likelihood of importing in a market characterized by high concentration and increasing protection. Moreover, the analysis highlights that non-tariff measures and market concentration levels were the most significant factors influencing the probability of importing in Colombia. 

For 2017, it was found that most imports were destined for intermediate consumption, especially for the manufacturing and trade sectors, and that these sectors, therefore, may be the most affected by changes in non-tariff measures and the value of imported goods.