Credit funding and banking fragility : an empirical analysis for emerging economies

Borradores de Economia
Number: 
931
Published: 
Classification JEL: 
C11, C52, C53, G01, G21
Keywords: 
Human capital agglomeration, Social returns, Private returns, Externalities, Uncertainty, Fiscal policy

This paper proposes an empirical model to identify and forecast banking fragility episodes using information on the credit funding sources. We predict the probability of occurrence of such episodes 0, 3 and 6 months ahead employing a Bayesian Model Averag