Dynamic connectedness and causality between oil prices and exchange rates

Borradores de Economia
Number: 
1025
Published: 
Classification JEL: 
C22, G01, G12
Keywords: 
Human capital agglomeration, Social returns, Private returns, Externalities, Uncertainty, Fiscal policy

The most recent

María Teresa Ramírez-Giraldo, Karina Acosta, Olga Lucia Acosta Navarro, Lucia Arango-Lozano, Fernando Arias-Rodríguez, Oscar Iván Ávila-Montealegre, Oscar Reinaldo Becerra Camargo, Leonardo Bonilla-Mejía, Grey Yuliet Ceballos-Garcia, Luz Adriana Flórez, Juan Miguel Gallego-Acevedo, Luis Armando Galvis-Aponte, Luis M. García-Pulgarín, Andrés Felipe García-Suaza, Anderson Grajales, Daniela Gualtero-Briceño, Didier Hermida-Giraldo, Ana María Iregui-Bohórquez, Juliana Jaramillo-Echeverri, Karen Laguna-Ballesteros, Francisco Javier Lasso-Valderrama, Daniel Márquez, Carlos Alberto Medina-Durango, Ligia Alba Melo-Becerra, María Fernanda Meneses-González, Juan José Ospina-Tejeiro, Andrea Sofía Otero-Cortés, Daniel Parra-Amado, Juana Piñeros-Ruiz, Christian Manuel Posso-Suárez, Natalia Ramírez-Bustamante, Mario Andrés Ramos-Veloza, Jorge Leonardo Rodríguez-Arenas, Alejandro Sarasti-Sierra, Bibiana Taboada-Arango, Ana María Tribín-Uribe, Juanita Villaveces
Carlos David Ardila-Dueñas, Joel Santiago Castellanos-Caballero, Carlos David Murcia-Bustos
Wilmer Martinez-Rivera, Manuel Darío Hernández-Bejarano

We study connectedness and causality between oil prices and exchange rates dynamically. Using data on the WTI and exchange rate returns for six countries in which oil production is a major production activity, we show that oil prices are net receptors of spillovers from excahnge rate markets. Connectedness exhibits important time variation and presents a positive trend during our sample period. We find evidence of bidirectional causality between oil prices and exchange rates, which presents also considerable time-variation. Causality is identified for longer periods of time from oil prices to exchange rates. However, we also find evidence of reverse causality, mainly in the period after the Subprime Financial Crisis. Our results provide evidence supporting the hypothesis of the financialization of oil markets.