An Early Warning Model for Predicting Credit Booms Using Macroeconomic Aggregates

Borradores de Economia
Number: 
723
Published: 
Classification JEL: 
E32, E37, E44, E51, C53
Keywords: 
Human capital agglomeration, Social returns, Private returns, Externalities, Uncertainty, Fiscal policy
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In this paper, we propose an alternative methodology to determine the existence of credit booms, which is a complex and crucial issue for policymakers. In particular, we exploit the Mendoza and Terrones (2008)’s idea that macroeconomic aggregates other th