Forecasting the USD/COP Exchange Rate: A Random Walk with a Variable Drift

Borradores de Economia
Number: 
253
Published: 
Classification JEL: 
C33, F21, F34
Keywords: 
Human capital agglomeration, Social returns, Private returns, Externalities, Uncertainty, Fiscal policy

This study develops three exchange rate models as well as a simple statistical model defined as a random walk with a variable drift. The exchange rate models all use the purchasing power parity hypothesis to account for the long-term relationships between