Fiscal and macroeconomic effects of different health system risk factors

This paper evaluates the fiscal and macroeconomic effects of some risks faced by the health system. These comprise changes in demographic and morbidity patterns, new medical technologies, inefficiencies in the system and the structure of the labor market. These factors represent a challenge for the fiscal sustainability of the health system since they require an increase in public resources and permanent sources of financing. The analysis is carried out using a Computable General Equilibrium Model (CGEM). According to the study, it is estimated that in 2030 an additional 1.91% of GDP will be required in public resources compared to 2022. However, if the country can increase economic growth and labor formalization, fiscal pressures could be reduced. Improving efficiency in the use of available resources and increasing productivity would also contribute to reducing the need for fiscal resources and improving the well-being of the population.