Borradores de Economia
Number:
1308
Published:
Authors:
Classification JEL:
J11, J21
Keywords:
Labor force (24968), Population aging (21886), Demographic change (24969)
The most recent
María Teresa Ramírez-Giraldo, Karina Acosta, Olga Lucia Acosta Navarro, Lucia Arango-Lozano, Fernando Arias-Rodríguez, Oscar Iván Ávila-Montealegre, Oscar Reinaldo Becerra Camargo, Leonardo Bonilla-Mejía, Grey Yuliet Ceballos-Garcia, Luz Adriana Flórez, Juan Miguel Gallego-Acevedo, Luis Armando Galvis-Aponte, Luis M. García-Pulgarín, Andrés Felipe García-Suaza, Anderson Grajales, Daniela Gualtero-Briceño, Didier Hermida-Giraldo, Ana María Iregui-Bohórquez, Juliana Jaramillo-Echeverri, Karen Laguna-Ballesteros, Francisco Javier Lasso-Valderrama, Daniel Márquez, Carlos Alberto Medina-Durango, Ligia Alba Melo-Becerra, María Fernanda Meneses-González, Juan José Ospina-Tejeiro, Andrea Sofía Otero-Cortés, Daniel Parra-Amado, Juana Piñeros-Ruiz, Christian Manuel Posso-Suárez, Natalia Ramírez-Bustamante, Mario Andrés Ramos-Veloza, Jorge Leonardo Rodríguez-Arenas, Alejandro Sarasti-Sierra, Bibiana Taboada-Arango, Ana María Tribín-Uribe, Juanita Villaveces
Wilmer Martinez-Rivera, Manuel Darío Hernández-Bejarano
Carlos David Ardila-Dueñas, Joel Santiago Castellanos-Caballero, Carlos David Murcia-Bustos
Abstract
This document presents projections of Colombia’s labor force until 2070 in the context of demographic change and its economic implications. The calculations are based on microdata from the Gran Encuesta Integrada de Hogares (GEIH), population projections from DANE, and estimates from CEPAL on the future evolution of Colombia’s labor force until 2050. Additionally, alternative scenarios are considered, incorporating the recent decline in the country’s birth rate. Based on DANE’s original population projections, the labor force would begin to decline starting in 2054. However, in alternative scenarios, the beginning of this decline would occur approximately 10 years earlier, between 2043 and 2045. In all alternative scenarios, the labor force will continue to grow at a higher rate than the total population for a couple more decades.
Considering the recent decline in the birth rate, the beginning of the decline in the labor force in Colombia would occur between 2043 and 2045.