Investigador Principal - Unidad de Investigaciones
Juan Manuel Julio is BS in Statistics graduated with honors from Universidad Nacional de Colombia, and MSc in Statistics from the University of Chicago. His research interests and publications cover a wide variety of subjects such as monetary, exchange and fiscal policies, as well as information systems development, among others.
At the start of his career he was a member of the team that calculated the level of effective protection for the 1991 Colombian Trade Liberalization program, for which he developed the International Trade Information System. Simultaneously, he carried out research that led to the abandonment of the Crawling Peg exchange rate regime. Later, he became a member of the technical team that developed the Haircut methodology for REPO operations in the Bank, for which he developed the Public Debt Operations Information System. This system was also an input for the development of the Super Intendencia Financiera Financial Pricing regulation, in which he also took part as a member of its technical team.
Afterwards, accompanied by Javier Gómez, he undertook a research agenda on the Demand for Money and the Inflation Targeting Regime in Colombia. More precisely, two of their papers laid down the quantitate support for this regime in the country. Finally, this research agenda also included results on the development of Output Gap and NAIRU measurements, key indicators for the Inflation Targeting Regime.
More recently, in company of several co-workers, he was awarded the Rodrigo Gómez 2015 prize, while he was studying both, the effectiveness of the Colombian Central Bank intervention in the FOREX market, the effect of fiscal decentralization and wrote the refference works for Colombia on the stickiness of PPI and CPI prices. He has also studied the effect of price stickiness on the transmission mechanisms of monetary policy, the debt limit estimation for Colombia, the relationships between "El Niño" and food prices, y between oil prices and the exchange rate. In the same way, he has researched on the styilized facts and rationality of inflation expectations, as well as the passthrough from minimum wage increases to inflation.
Currently, Juan Manuel Julio, is developing monetary policy indicators from disaggregated consumer prices in Colombia.
Arango, L. E., Ávila-Montealegre, O. I., Bonilla-Mejía, L., Botero, J., Caicedo-García, E., Dávalos, E., Flórez, L. A., Gómez-Pineda, J. G., Grajales, A., Guarín-López, A., Hamann-Salcedo, F. A., Hermida-Giraldo, D., Julio-Román, J. M., Lasso-Valderrama, F. J., Martínez-Cortés, N., Méndez-Vizcaíno, J. C., Morales-Zurita, L. F., Ospina-Tejeiro, J. J., Pulido-Mahecha, K. L., Ramos-Veloza, M. A., Vargas-Riaño, C. O., (2022)
. Efectos macroeconómicos del salario mínimo en Colombia.
Iregui-Bohórquez, A. M., Anzola-Bravo, C., Ballén-Rubio, L. F., Bejarano-Salcedo, V., González-Molano, E. R., Grajales, A., Guarín-López, A., Hernández-Montes, M. A., Hernández-Ortega, R. E., Julio-Román, J. M., Melo-Velandia, L. F., Muñoz-Martínez, J., Núñez-Amórtegui, H. M., Otero-Cardona, J., Pérez-Amaya, J. M., Rincón-Torres, A. D., Romero-Chamorro, J. V., Sánchez-Jabba, A. M., Torres-Medina, P. A., (2021)
. ¿Qué nos dicen las encuestas sobre la formación de expectativas de inflación?.
Rincón-Castro, H., Arango-Lozano, L., Ariza-Murillo, S., Bejarano-Salcedo, V., Cardozo-Ortiz, P. A., Gamboa-Estrada, F. A., Julio-Román, J. M., León-Díaz, L. V., Miranda-Triana, C., Moreno-Jiménez, W. I., Ocampo-Gaviria, J. A., Parra-Polanía, J. A., Quicazán-Moreno, C. A., Rodríguez-Niño, N., Rodriguez-Novoa, D., Rojas-Moreno, J. S., Sánchez-Jabba, A. M., Sarmiento, M., Villamizar-Villegas, M., Zárate-Solano, H. M., (2020)
. Impacto de la intervención cambiaria y su duración.
Ensayos Sobre Politica Economica
Lozano-Espitia, L. I., Arias-Rodríguez, F., Bejarano-Rojas, J. A., González, A., Granger-Castaño, C., Hamann-Salcedo, F. A., Hernández-Turca, Y., Julio-Román, J. M., López-Piñeros, M. R., Méndez-Vizcaíno, J. C., Ramos-Forero, J. E., Rincón-Castro, H., Rodríguez-Guzmán, D. A., Toro-Córdoba, J. H., Zárate-Solano, H. M., (2019)
. La política fiscal y la estabilización macroeconómica en Colombia.
Ensayos Sobre Politica Economica