Forecasting annual inflation with power transformations : the case of inflation targeting countries

Borradores de Economia
Número: 
756
Publicado: 
Clasificación JEL: 
C22, C52
Palabras clave: 
ARIMA models, power transformations, seasonality, bayesian analysis

Lo más reciente

Bernardo Romero-Torres, Gerson Javier Pérez-Valbuena, Andrés Felipe García-Suaza, Jaime Alfredo Bonet-Moron
Olga Lucia Acosta Navarro, Andrés Felipe Chitán-Caes, Ana María Iregui-Bohórquez, Ligia Alba Melo-Becerra, María Teresa Ramírez-Giraldo, Jorge Leonardo Rodríguez Arenas
Alejandro Ome, Laura Giles Álvarez, Gerson Javier Pérez-Valbuena, Cristhian Larrahondo

This paper investigates whether transforming the Consumer Price Index with a class of power transformations lead to an improvement of inflation forecasting accuracy. We use one of the prototypical models to forecast short run inflation which is known as t