Research in international business and finance
Published:
Classification JEL:
C58, G15, G17
The most recent
Jhorland Ayala-García, Leider Manjarres-Beleño, María Urueta-Polo
Luis E. Arango, Luis E. Arango, Luz Adriana Flórez, Carlos Esteban Posada
Oscar Iván Ávila-Montealegre, Anderson Grajales, Juan José Ospina-Tejeiro, Mario Andrés Ramos-Veloza
This paper investigates the tail-dependence structure of emerging market sovereign credit default swaps (CDS) and the Global Financial Cycle (GFC) across eleven emerging markets. Using Copula-CoVaR estimations, we find significant tail-dependence between the GFC, represented by the VIX Volatility Index, and emerging market CDS. These results are essential in the context of distressed global financial markets. Furthermore, our results help evaluate CDS dynamics and provide a more suitable metric to analyze sovereign risk beyond the traditional CoVaR. Moreover, we present additional evidence supporting the importance of the global financial cycle in sovereign risk dynamics in different episodes from 2004 to 2022.