State fragility, violence and trade: Dangerous trade routes in Colombia

PAPERS IN REGIONAL SCIENCE
Number: 
4
Published: 
Authors:
Paul H. Junge,
Jean-Claude Thille,
Classification JEL: 
C25, F14, R10

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We investigate the effect of domestic armed violence brought about by insecurity on the geography of freight mobility and the resulting differential access of regions to global markets. There is a preponderance of evidence from the micro-level analysis of Colombia-U.S. export shipping records that export freight shipping from inland regions was re-routed to avoid exposure to domestic armed violence despite extended landside and maritime shipping distances. The discrete choice model shows that the shipping flow was curbed by the extended re- routing due to localized domestic armed violence. The results highlight that security must be accommodated for sustained freight mobility and export-oriented economic development in the Global South.